Bulgaria and Romania will be members of the Schengen area from January 1, 2025

Hungarian Interior Minister Sandor Pinter spoke of a “historic moment”. “The lifting of personal controls at the internal borders with and between these Member States was one of the top priorities of the Hungarian (Council) Presidency and today we have made it a reality.”

Romania and Bulgaria had already joined the so-called “Schengen Air” or “Schengen light” last March: While air and sea routes to the rest of the EU were open, border controls continued on land routes – with commuters and tourists waiting in some cases for hours. On January 1, 2025, the “Schengen light” model is expected to transition to full membership.

“The Schengen accession of Romania and Bulgaria offers significant opportunities for companies and tourism,” says Maria Simeonova. She is office manager of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in the Bulgarian capital Sofia and points to the “geographically strategic position” of the two countries.

Waiting times probably cost Bulgaria hundreds of millions of euros

Romania and Bulgaria connect the Black Sea with the rest of the EU. Simeonova expects shorter border waiting times and falling transport costs for goods in the future. Estimates suggest that delays due to border controls and long truck traffic jams cost Bulgaria’s economy around 650 million euros annually. “Dubious companies that operate so-called buffer parking lots on the borders with Romania and Turkey benefit from these traffic jams,” says the “Euractiv” portal. The high fees charged by semi-legal service providers have caused increasing frustration among transport companies in all countries.

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, researcher at the Brussels think tank Bruegel, is also convinced of the positive effects of an expanded Schengen zone. This would not only be felt by the thousands of Romanians and Bulgarians who are already working in other EU countries, many in the care sector, for example. “Easy border crossing will enable daily commuting and trade across borders. There are also new opportunities for regional tourism.” As far as the economy is concerned, the region can look forward to a “moderate increase” from the open borders.

Romania’s long road to the Schengen area

Bucharest, early December: The mood is boiling. Thousands have gathered in the streets of the Romanian capital. They wave European flags. And shout: “We want democracy!” The aim of their protest is to prevent a “fascist” from taking office. Almost a month later, the shock over the surprise victory of the ultra-nationalist Călin Georgescu in the presidential election is still deep.

His triumph, which was later annulled by the Constitutional Court, is not only due to the suspicious social media campaign, the trail of which leads to Moscow. Experts suspect that Georgescu also benefited from the anti-EU sentiment among Romanians. The long wait for Schengen accession has led to growing frustration.

For years, first the Netherlands and then Austria had blocked accession – out of concern about irregular migration, as it was officially said. Recently, the number of illegal border crossings has fallen sharply. This led Vienna to drop its veto against Romania’s accession. Critics continued to accuse the Austrian government of adopting an attitude that had nothing to do with reality.

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“It was pure symbolic politics based on domestic politics and damaged the European project,” says Dominic Fritz. The German was re-elected as mayor of Romania’s fifth largest city, Timișoara, in 2024. In his eyes, his adopted country’s accession to Schengen would end a “drama” and a “fundamental injustice”.

Schengen accession as protection against Russia?

The rapprochement with the rest of Europe is seen as a new opportunity in both nations. Romania’s President Klaus Johannis emphasized: “Full membership in the Schengen area strengthens Romania’s strategic position as a gateway between Eastern and Western Europe.” Last but not least, the pro-European forces in both countries hope that approval for a common Europe will be renewed with Schengen accession rises. In both Bulgaria and Romania, EU skeptics and parties close to Moscow recently made strong gains in the elections. In the recently elected parliament in Bucharest, the right-wing nationalists together hold around a third of the votes.

“Accession to the Schengen area represents the final stage of their EU integration for Bucharest and Sofia,” says political scientist Simeonova. While the introduction of the euro is still pending in both countries, many Romanians and Bulgarians see Schengen admission as a “victory”. But it remains a victory with drawbacks – at least for the time being.

There will continue to be controls at the borders between Romania and Bulgaria as well as Romania and Hungary in the first half of 2025. The interior ministers of the affected countries, together with Austria, agreed on this in a “border protection package”. In addition, a joint contingent of 100 police officers will control the border between Bulgaria and Turkey. The controls could be extended after the first six months; politicians left this open. A compromise, it seems.

Experts refute concerns about irregular migration

The skeptics remained unconvinced until the end. They expressed concern that the southeast expansion of the Schengen area would lead to an increase in irregular migration. But the experts are reassuring. “A new border fence has already been built between Bulgaria and Turkey, which is probably at least partially patrolled by FRONTEX personnel,” says Bruegel researcher Kirkegaard.

While the national borders are largely secured – or not heavily frequented due to the Ukraine war – the EU will have to pay more attention to the maritime borders from 2025. The Black Sea therefore offers a new gateway after the Schengen expansion. There is currently no danger due to the cooperation between the EU and Türkiye. However, Kirkegaard warns: “If this deal fails in the future, there may now be a greater likelihood of a renewed escalation of migration to the EU, particularly via the Bulgarian coast.”

Political scientist Simeonova in Sofia advises a differentiated view. Finally, Schengen expansion, if carried out correctly, offers additional mechanisms with which the EU’s external border can be secured. She also refers to the Bulgarian-Turkish border, where Bulgarians will in future patrol together with border guards from other EU states. “From this point of view, joining the Schengen area does not entail any additional risks, but rather creates additional security.”